The Lula administration is reportedly examining new measures to increase revenue and close the projected fiscal gaps for 2025 and 2026. This new package of actions puts the taxation of online betting (“bets”) back at the center of the economic team’s strategy, following the defeat of Provisional Measure (MP) 1.303/2025 in Congress. The MP had sought to increase taxes as an alternative to hiking the Financial Transactions Tax (IOF).
The decision to focus on taxing betting operators is strategic: the economic team sees the issue as having “popular appeal” and, consequently, expecting less parliamentary resistance.
The taxation of betting houses was a key component of the defeated MP but was removed from the final text presented by the rapporteur, Deputy Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), to the Mixed Congressional Committee on Tuesday (October 7). The amended measure was approved by the committee by a single vote, but was subsequently shelved by the Chamber of Deputies, leaving an estimated fiscal hole of R$ 46 billion until 2026.
The text changes caused friction among lawmakers. Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) criticized the way the amendments were conducted, stating that the Senate would not merely rubber-stamp a decision made by the Chamber. “Yes, I am [against this reduction]. But that’s not the issue. The Senate needs to participate in the process; the Senate will not rubber-stamp a negotiation made by the Chamber, we have never seen that here,” he added.
Revenue Potential and the Narrative of ‘Tax Justice’
The government views the betting sector as a field with significant, yet underexplored, revenue potential. Since the regulation of fixed-odds betting in 2023, revenue has grown but remains below official expectations. The assessment is that a tax increase on “bets” will garner popular support and help reinforce the narrative of “tax justice,” a key theme promoted by Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad.
According to sources within the Planalto Palace (the executive branch), the narrative that the government is collecting taxes from high-profit sectors, rather than penalizing the poor, is seen as a way to mitigate the political damage caused by the defeat in Congress.
“It is an agreement that does not penalize the worker, that does not penalize 99% of the population, and does not even penalize the 1%, but calls on the 1% to take responsibility for ensuring the country continues to function well,” Haddad stated.
Stricter Enforcement on the Horizon
Behind the scenes, interlocutors from the betting sector anticipate that the government will stiffen enforcement against non-regulated companies, including the imposition of retroactive charges and administrative sanctions. It is estimated that, prior to official regulation, dozens of platforms moved billions of reais without remitting taxes to the Federal Government.
While a final decision has not been made, the economic team is working to present the proposal in the coming days, as soon as President Lula returns to Brasília. In an interview with Rádio Piatã in Bahia, the President has already signaled that he will insist on a tax increase…
