Study reveals that clandestine sites already move more money than regulated platforms, and the trend is likely to worsen without coordinated actions
Illegal betting already exceeds regulated bets in the country
The online betting market in Brazil is experiencing a worrying reversal. In the second quarter of 2025, clandestine sites received R$1.04 for every R$1 wagered on regulated platformsaccording to the consultancy report Yield Sec.
In the first half of the year, the sector moved R$35.5 billionbeing R$18.1 billion (51%) from illegal operations and R$17.4 billion (49%) from licensed operators.
Yield Sec projects that, until the end of 2026the underground market can dominate up to 72% of bets in Brazildriven by major sporting events such as 2026 World Cup.
Billion-dollar fiscal impact
The loss of revenue is alarming. Between April and June 2025, the government stopped collecting from R$1.8 to R$2.7 billion in taxes because of illegal websites.
In 12 months, evasion can reach R$ 10.8 billionaccording to estimates by industry analysts.
Additional research reinforces the warning:
- A study of the LCA Consultoresin partnership with the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) and the Locomotive Instituteshowed that between 41% and 51% of bets in Brazil occur on unregulated platforms.
- According to a survey cited by Brazil Agency, six out of ten bettors used illegal websites in 2025.
Why is the underground market growing so fast?
🔹 Immediate adaptation of illegal operators
When one domain is blocked, another one appears almost instantly. This digital agility makes inspection ineffective, as operators can recreate websites in minutesmaintaining the financial flow.
To face this, the Prizes and Betting Secretariat (SPA)linked to the Ministry of Financebegan to look payment institutions and banks that process illegal transactions.
THE Ordinance No. 566/2025 established new rules, prohibiting the use of bank accounts by unauthorized websites and requiring anti-fraud controls from financial institutions.
🔹 Irregular advertising on networks
Even prohibited, Illegal betting advertisements continue to circulate on social media.
In August, the Attorney General of the Union (AGU) notified the Goal (owner of Facebook and Instagram) to remove irregular content within 48 hours and prevent new promotions by unlicensed companies.
In September, the SPAthe Anatel and the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) signed a technical cooperation agreement to strengthen blockages and create a illegal betting tracking cyber laboratory.
Construction regulations and new challenges
To the fixed odds bets were authorized in Brazil by Law No. 13,756/2018but they only gained effective regulation with the Law No. 14,790/2023which included online games and created the SPA in January 2024.
Among the main requirements for regulated operators are:
- Identification and proof of life of players;
- Bank accounts in the user’s name;
- Prohibition of deposits in cash or bank slip;
- Robust information security policies;
- Sports integrity monitoring;
- Prohibition of minors under 18 and betting on youth categories.
Even so, the debate continues. THE Bill 2842/23currently in progress, proposes prohibit betting on “individual bids”such as corners and cards — a measure that, according to experts, could push bettors back into the illegal market.
Risks for clubs, sponsorships and sporting integrity
If the underground market continues to grow, the Brazilian football could be one of the most affected.
According to Ismail ValiCEO of Yield Sec, if crime dominates more than 60% of the market, clubs will lose sponsors; if it reaches 75%, half of the contracts could disappear.
At the moment, all Serie A clubs have betting sponsors — about 90% of companies in the sector occupy the main space on the shirt.
In August 2025, the Flemish signed a record contract R$ 268.5 million with Betanofar exceeding the amounts of bank sponsorship it received five years ago.
In addition to the financial impact, there is a direct risk to sporting integrity:
regulated houses are required to report suspected manipulation of resultswhile illegal websites operate without any control or traceability.
Profile of the vulnerable bettor and the sector’s response
One Central Bank study indicates that 17% of beneficiaries of social programs have already placed bets — many sending amounts via Pix to illegal websites.
Another survey of the Locomotive Institute showed that 78% of bettors do not know how to identify whether a website is regulated, and 46% have already deposited money on irregular platforms.
In response, the IBJR launched the campaign “No more goats in the room”to warn about the risks of illegal betting and encourage the use of regulated sites.
A scenario that requires coordinated action
Brazil is going through a critical moment. The illegal market has already surpassed the legal one — and everything indicates that this difference tends to grow.
More illegality means:
- Less revenue;
- Risk to sporting integrity;
- Erosion of public trust.
Current measures — domain blocksnotifications to social networks and financial restrictions — are important, but still fragmented.
Without integration between public bodies, international cooperation and bettor educationthe game will continue to be unbalanced — and the underground market will remain victorious.
📊 Read more about regulation, compliance and the betting market in Brazil at Gaming365.com.br
Fonte Gaming365 – Brasil
