The negotiation of Super Bowl on the American platform Kalshi reached almost US$900 million in financial volumeconsolidating the event as one of the greatest examples of the growth of prediction markets linked to sports entertainment.
Of the total negotiated, more than US$500 million were concentrated only in the market that anticipated the match winner. Others US$400 million came from parallel markets, which involved since halftime show opening song to participating artists, advertisers and the Game MVP.
For the Brazilian public, it is worth highlighting: Kalshi does not operate as a traditional betting house, but as a prediction exchangewhere users trade contracts based on future events, similar to a financial market.
Winner’s market concentrated the greatest liquidity
The contract that predicted the outcome between Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots largely dominated the traded volume. Seattle appeared as favorites throughout virtually the entire period, with average odds around 67% versus 33%.
Volume growth was gradual throughout Sunday, but accelerated sharply in the hours leading up to the start of the game:
- 05:30 (ET) – around US$ 199 million
- 9:30 am (ET) – around US$201 million
- 1:00 p.m. (ET) – around US$ 211 million
- 4:30 p.m. (ET) – just over US$301 million
- 5:50 p.m. (ET) – around US$326 million
- Final settlement – US$500.17 million
The peak in negotiations close to the kickoff and during the game caused technical instabilities on the platform. The founder of Kalshi, Luana Lopes Laraconfirmed the problems publicly on the X network (formerly Twitter).
Halftime show opening song becomes millionaire market
One of the most curious — and most traded — markets was the first song played in the halftime showwhich alone moved US$113.5 million.
The music “Tití Me Asked”by Bad Bunny, ended up being selected as the winner, but the path to the definition was marked by rumors and strong volatility:
- 9:20 am (ET) – US$38 million
- 1:00 p.m. (ET) – US$47 million
- 3:30 p.m. (ET) – US$58 million
- 4:30 p.m. (ET) – US$68 million
- Liquidation – US$ 113.52 million
Rumors released by betting influencers in the US even boosted music “Chambea”which jumped from 2% to over 20% probability within hours, before retreating after public corrections.
The episode shows how, in prediction markets, rumors and social media can directly impact traders’ behavior.
MVP and advertisers add over $124 million
The market for Super Bowl advertisers was the second largest among entertainment markets, moving around US$72.2 million.
Companies like Pepsi, Gemini and Him & Hers they even traded above a 95% probability of showing. Already brands like Netflix and Amazon Prime fluctuated a lot until moments before the game.
Another relevant market was Match MVPwhich amounted to approximately US$52.2 million in negotiations.
Before the game:
- Sam Darnold (QB, Seahawks) led with around 44%
- Drake Maye (QB, Patriots) came next, with around 27%
- Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seahawks) appeared with around 8%
Halftime artists generate US$47 million and generate regulatory debate
The market “Who will perform besides Bad Bunny?” has accumulated approx. US$47.3 million in traded volume.
Artists like Lady Gaga and Ricky Martinwith confirmed participation, maintained probabilities above 70% during the day. Already Cardi B and Karol G generated controversy.
Both appeared on stage during the show, but did not sing or perform musicallywhich raised questions about eligibility under Kalshi rules. Following regulatory clarification, trading in these contracts was suspended prior to final settlement.
The case illustrates a central point of prediction markets: not just the event, but also the interpretation of the rules.
Traditional bets have lower participation
Despite the overall record volume, more traditional markets — similar to conventional sports betting — had relatively lower participation, totaling around US$66 million.
The most traded contracts were:
- Player who scores a touchdown at any time – $14.8 million
- First touchdown of the game – $10.8 million
- Result combinations and totals – US$8.9 million
This behavior contrasts with traditional bookmakers, where player statistics often dominate the volume.
Total volume traded in the Super Bowl (Kalshi)
- Game winner: ~$500.17 million
- Opening song: ~$113.5 million
- Advertisers: ~$72.2 million
- MVP: ~$52.2 million
- Halftime Artists: ~$47.3 million
- Other markets: ~US$118.5 million
Approximate total: US$903.9 million
What does this reveal about the market
On normal days, sports results dominate the prediction markets. However, global events like the Super Bowl reverse this logic.
Markets linked to entertainment, rumors and narrative attract more liquidity than pure sports statistics. For one night, Kalshi functioned less like a sports betting platform and more like a event financial marketreflecting the evolution of modern bettor behavior.
Do you want to understand how to access international assets linked to this new global investment axis?
Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
