THE Robinhood is a United States digital brokerage focused on app-based investments, known for popularizing commission-free trading. The company is listed on NASDAQunder the ticker HOODand operates in the stock markets, options, cryptocurrencies and, more recently, prediction markets.
The company reported better-than-expected earnings per share results for the fourth quarter, but revenue was below Wall Street forecasts. The market reacted negatively, and shares fell around 7% in the pre-market.
📊 Financial results for the quarter
- Earnings per share (EPS): $0.66 (above forecast of $0.62)
- Net revenue: US$1.28 billion (below expectations of ~US$1.32–1.34 billion)
- Net profit: US$605 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: US$761 million (+24% year-on-year)
Even with relevant annual growth, frustration with revenue put pressure on shares, which have already accumulated a significant drop since October.
📉 Cryptocurrencies drag revenue down
One of the main negative impacts came from the crypto area:
- Crypto revenue fell 38%to US$ 221 million
- The fall was worse than the market expected
Other areas performed better:
- Options: +41%
- Actions: +54%
Still, both segments were slightly below analysts’ projections.
🚀 Prediction markets come to prominence
CEO Vlad Tenev stated that the Prediction markets are the fastest growing business in the company’s historywith an annualized rate exceeding US$300 million in the first year.
The partnership with Kalshi and the development of its own new platform, called Rothera (MIAXdx)place Robinhood as the protagonist in this segment.
What are prediction markets?
These are contracts that allow you to negotiate probabilities about future events — such as elections, economic indicators or sporting results — structured as financial products regulated by the CFTC (derivatives regulatory body in the USA), and not like traditional betting.
According to the company:
- Funded customers reached 27 million (+7%)
- Premium plan subscribers Robinhood Gold exceeded 4.2 million (+58% in the year)
⚖️ Regulatory advantage and expansion
Unlike traditional betting houses, prediction markets operate under another regulatory structure in the US, which may provide more flexibility for expansion.
Robinhood has also partnered with Susquehanna to operate its own CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. This could reduce dependency on Kalshi in the future.
Analysts estimate that the prediction market could go out of US$2 billion today to US$10 billion by 2030.
📌 What does this mean for the market?
Even with the pressure on shares in the near term, Robinhood appears to be positioning itself as:
- Pioneer in prediction markets
- Strong in derivative products
- Less dependent on crypto than before
For those who follow the betting and iGaming sector, the movement is relevant: prediction markets can compete directly with traditional sportsbooks, offering a greater variety of events and a different regulatory structure.
Conclusion
Lower-than-expected revenue weighed on the short term, but Robinhood is accelerating in a segment that could become strategic in the coming years.
If prediction markets really enter a “supercycle”, as the CEO bets, the company could transform this new vertical into one of the group’s main sources of growth.
Do you want to understand how to access international assets linked to this new global investment axis?
Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
