THE Coinbase — cryptocurrency broker listed on NASDAQ (ticker: COIN) — placed the prediction markets at the center of its growth strategy for 2026. The company wants to go beyond crypto and become an “exchange for everything”, offering stocks, commodities and event contracts in the same app. The movement, however, is already facing lawsuits and resistance from state regulators in the US.
Partnership with Kalshi and plan to have its own platform
Coinbase launched prediction markets in late 2025 in partnership with Kalshi. The company made it clear that the partnership is not exclusive and that it can create its own markets in the future.
Other giants follow a similar path:
- Robinhood****: prepares its own platform (Rothera) via JV with Susquehanna.
- DraftKings:** bought Railbird Exchange to have its own infrastructure.
Market reading: big players want full control of technology and less dependence on partners.
Regulatory battle in multiple states
Shortly after launch, Coinbase filed lawsuits against Illinois, Michigan and Connecticutarguing that sporting event contracts should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not state gaming laws.
Already in Nevadathe Nevada Gaming Control Board accuses Coinbase of operating unlicensed sports betting. Similar cases affect Crypto.com and Kalshi itself, with geo-blocks in some states.
Risk: if states win, prediction markets can be framed as bets, completely changing the regulatory game.
Super Bowl accelerated adoption
Coinbase took advantage of the Super Bowl to give visibility to the product, with a viral commercial (controversial, but much talked about). The CEO Brian Armstrong said the event was many people’s “first contact” with prediction markets.
Strategy: use mass marketing to attract users and then convert for new products within the app.
4th quarter numbers (summary)
- Total revenue: US$ 1.8 billion
- Transaction Revenue: US$ 983 million
- Subscriptions and services: US$727 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: US$566 million
- Box: US$ 11.3 billion
The company reinforces that diversify beyond crypto helps reduce business volatility.
What lies ahead
With prediction markets active in all 50 states, the coming months should determine whether these products will be treated as financial derivatives (CFTC) or betting (state laws). The result can enable or stop Coinbase’s strategy for 2026.
Summary straight to the point: Coinbase wants to grow with prediction markets, surfed the Super Bowl visibility, but entered a regulatory minefield. If the legal dispute wins, a new billion-dollar market will open; if you lose, you will have to redesign the product in the USA.
Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
