THE DraftKings released the results for the 4th quarter and the year 2025 as expected, but the projection (guidance) for 2026 came below consensus. The market reacted badly: the stock fell at the close and sank in the after-market, accumulating drop of close to 15%.
Source: Gambling Insider
Numbers for 4Q25 and the year
- 4Q25 Revenue: US$ 1.99 billion (top of guidance) | +43% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA 4Q25: US$343 million (online)
- Revenue 2025: US$ 6.0 billion | +27% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA 2025: US$619.9 million
- EPS 4Q25: $0.36 (below the expected $0.41)
Guidance 2026 (below market):
- Revenue: US$6.5–6.9 billion (vs. consensus ~US$7.29 billion)
- Adjusted EBITDA: US$700–900 million (improvement vs. old projections)
Why the stock fell hard
- Weaker projections for 2026 raised doubts about the pace of growth.
- “Better-friendly” results at the end of 2025 they put pressure on margins (hold).
- The market wants signs of higher “structural hold”especially via accumulated (SGPs)which sustain much of the profitability.
- MUP (monthly unique users) It stopped at 4.8 mi (lower than expected).
- Competitive noise with prediction markets gaining ground in the USA.
Where is the growth (and risks)
Positive points
- Season of NFL and college football playoffs boosted volumes in Q4.
- ARPMUP rose 43% YoY, with improved margins in sportsbook and iGaming.
- Jackpocket (online lottery) can accelerate cash flow and EBITDA in 2026.
Points of attention
- Dependence on accumulated to sustain margins.
- Regulatory and tax pressure in states such as Illinois.
- Competition from prediction markets (e.g.: Kalshi and Polymarket).
- Still limited geographic expansion in the large missing markets (such as California and Texas).
What to expect from management
The CEO Jason Robins reinforced the commitment to prediction markets as an incremental engine of growth and promised product investment and user acquisition. It is still too early to measure the financial impact of DraftKings Predictions (launched at the end of December), but the market will demand rapid traction in 2026.
Panorama for the Brazilian investor
For those who follow US iGaming stocks, the message is clear:
- Operational execution remains strongbut the 2026 guidance was frustrated.
- The thesis depends on more resilient marginstraction in new products and regulatory advances in large states.
- Technical breakout below key levels increases short-term volatility.
Summary: 2025 fundamentals were solid, but the projection for 2026 raised the alarm. The market wants to see structural improvement in margins and concrete signs of growth outside the traditional core.
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Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
