Do aliens exist? 👽
The answer remains a mystery, but one thing is certain: the prediction market exploded in trading volume after United States President Donald Trump promised to release so-called “alien files”.
The announcement was made on the social network Truth Social and was enough for traders to rush to bet on markets that try to predict whether or not the American government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life.
Traders rush to bet: volumes soar on Kalshi and Polymarket
Shortly after Trump’s post, prediction markets on aliens recorded a significant jump in trading volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
In Kalshijust two weeks ago, the market asking whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens had moved about US$1.3 million. After Trump’s announcement, volume surpassed US$5 million.
In the last 24 hours alone, traders moved more than US$1 millionmaking the odds increase 17% to 28%before stabilizing around 21%.
In Polymarketthe movement was similar:
- Probability last week: 9%
- Current probability: about 17%
In other words: even without any concrete proof, the simple political announcement was enough to heat up the betting market on future events.
What needs to happen for the market to pay “YES”?
Despite the excitement, the criteria for the market to be resolved as “Yes” are very specific.
At Kalshi, for example, it only counts as confirmation if:
A U.S. president, member of the cabinet, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a federal agency declares definitely that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before January 1, 2027.
Polymarket follows a similar logic, requiring a official statement from the United States government until December 31, 2026.
In other words: leaks, rumors or vague interviews are not enough. It has to be something official and unambiguous.
Barack Obama joined the conversation (and Trump didn’t like it)
The atmosphere was already heating up after a recent interview by former President Barack Obama with podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen.
When asked about aliens, Obama said:
“They are real, but I haven’t seen them.”
He went on to say that there is no secret underground base hiding aliens from the president — unless there is a huge conspiracy.
Trump reacted badly to Obama’s speech and publicly criticized the statement. According to a BBC report, Trump told journalists aboard Air Force One:
“He shouldn’t be doing this. He made a big mistake.”
Interestingly, just hours after this criticism, Trump announced that he would order the government to begin the process of identifying and releasing files on aliens.
When asked if he himself believes in the existence of extraterrestrials, Trump responded:
“Well, I don’t know if they’re real or not.”
Why does this matter for Brazil and the betting market?
This episode is a perfect example of how policyentertainment and prediction market are increasingly connected.
For the Brazilian public — especially those who follow betting, iGaming and prediction markets — this shows how:
- Political news generates immediate trading spikes
- Curious events (like “ETs”) move millions of dollars
- Prediction markets work as a “thermometer” of collective belief
- Entertainment has become a real driver of financial volume
This type of market is still little explored in Brazil, but it shows a clear trend:
👉 betting on real-world events, not just sports.
Quick summary
- Trump promised to release “alien files”
- Prediction Markets Soared in Volume
- Kalshi and Polymarket saw millions of dollars in bets
- Obama entered the subject and generated controversy
- Politics + entertainment + betting = explosive audience combo
Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
