With the presidential elections approaching, public interest goes beyond the political debate. The election that will define the next president of Brazil is already generating millions of dollars in forecast markets abroad. Until this Monday, February 23rd, bets on the Brazilian presidential election totaled US$20.3 million (around R$105.1 million) on the North American platform Polymarket.
The electoral dispute takes place in October and, even though there are around eight months until voting, the volume of negotiations is already drawing attention due to the accelerated pace of growth. The phenomenon reflects the advancement of prediction markets as a tool for speculation about political, economic and social events around the world.
Lula leads bets; Flávio Bolsonaro appears second
The current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)appears as a favorite in the market, concentrating approximately US$3.4 million (R$17.6 million) in betting. Next, the senator appears Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ)with approximately US$2.4 million (R$12.4 million) in traded volume.
Other names available for betting include Renan Santos, Junior Mouse, Tarcísio de Freitas, Fernando Haddad, Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro.
Despite being on the platform’s list, Jair Bolsonaro is ineligible in Brazil and is serving a sentence of more than 27 years for an attempted coup d’état, which, in practice, makes his participation in the election unfeasible — although the market still allows speculative bets on his name.
Kalshi also offers a market for elections in Brazil
Another international prediction market, Kalshi, also offers contracts related to the Brazilian presidential election. The traded volume, however, is much smaller: around US$468.8 thousand (R$2.4 million) so far, being much lower than that recorded on Polymarket.
Political betting is prohibited in Brazil
In Brazil, betting houses cannot offer predictions about elections. The regulations only allow bets on real sporting events and online gamesprohibiting any type of bet involving political or electoral results.
Already the international prediction markets They do not present themselves as traditional betting platforms. They operate by buying and selling “contracts” that represent the probability of an event occurring — such as the outcome of an election, political decisions or global economic events.
How Prediction Markets Work
In prediction markets, participants trade contracts whose price reflects the collective probability of a certain event happening. The greater the users’ confidence in a result, the greater the value of the contract tends to be. This model transforms public expectations into real-time probability indicators, used by both speculators and trend analysts.
As the Brazilian presidential election approaches, the tendency is for trading volumes to continue to grow, following the heating of the political debate and the increase in international exposure of the Brazilian election.
Fonte: Gaming365 – Brasil
